Canadian Climate Leadership – Addressing the Looming Threats Despite a Return of International Conflict
By Alexander Landry and Alexa Dominique Pascual. Originally published on 28 November 2023 by the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy on its website.
Abstract
The rise of tensions both in Eastern Europe and the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) regions over the past two years has recently shifted attention from global challenges such as climate change towards a return of armed conflicts on the international stage. Yet, climate change-induced disasters continue to plague the international community on an incredibly devastating and recurrent basis. The United Nations reports indicate that the international community is likely to miss the critical 2030 targets outlined in the Paris Agreement. As a result, the irreversible effects of climate change, including those relevant to climate security considerations, are looming closer. This article outlines these considerations for climate security, highlighting consequences that are becoming a reality sooner than expected. It also proposes ways for Canada to take a leadership role in this domain.
Introduction
Recent events in the Middle East, coupled with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, have taken center-stage as of late, with large-scale conflict making its return to the international scene. Accordingly, within the sphere of international relations, this re-emergence of power politics can be attributed to a weakening of the liberal order and its institutions. One of the results of this shift is the dearth of sustained efforts towards resolving the ongoing problems that can only be addressed through international cooperation – namely: climate change.
At a recent Institute for Peace & Diplomacy colloquium titled “Canada in a Shifting International Order: Debating our National Interests”, a critical question posed was raised: “Does climate change outstrip great power competition as the existential crisis facing the international community?” If this is true, it suggests that climate change should serve as the unifying crisis, or even central issue within the international system, potentially overriding the pursuit of geopolitical gains or rivalries among regional and global powers. Yet, United Nations reports indicate that we are not on track to meet long-term goals set out by the Paris Agreement. To this effect, achieving the 2030 objectives would require a reduction of emissions of 43%.
The Crux of the Issue – Collaboration within a Weakening International Order
The scientific community widely agrees on the impacts of climate change, a consensus that is also recognized within the international community. This acknowledgment is evident in agreements such as the Montreal Protocol (1987), the Kyoto Protocol (1997), and the Paris Agreement (2015), which highlight the commitment of nations to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmentally harmful actions, while also addressing the existing effects of climate change. Leading into the United Nations Climate Change Conference in November 2021 (commonly known as COP26) held in Glasgow, there was a sense of optimism for international collaboration. The conference saw more than 153 countries making net-zero commitments. Additionally, COP26 attracted unprecedented media attention on climate change, the most since the Paris Agreement’s signing in 2015, setting the stage for further progress at subsequent conferences.
However, the war in Ukraine overshadowed much of the subsequent COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh. Discussions there devolved into power politics and regional interests, particularly in debates pertaining to climate change reparations for emerging economies. Post-conference, these discussions further deteriorated, focusing on deeper issues related to certain states’ efforts to end perceived Western hegemony, exemplified by the growing significance of the BRICS bloc. The September 2023 G20 summit in India, the latest meeting of nations, aimed to address international issues such as climate change. Yet, it too witnessed emerging economies expressing their discontent with the West, highlighted by various MENA nations’ applications to join BRICS. The war in Ukraine continued to overshadow climate change discussions, with attendees failing to agree on fossil fuel reductions, despite the EU climate monitor’s report that 2023 was expected to be the hottest year in human history.
Consequently, the core issue for climate change remains: how can we foster sustainable action through collective efforts to address its threats amidst a weakening international order, deteriorating institutions, and the rise of both geopolitical competition and armed conflicts? The following section proposes the role Canada can play in leading global climate change initiatives. It also explores bringing this issue to the forefront, especially in light of Canada’s recent investments in this domain.
Canadian Considerations for Climate Change Leadership
The consequences of failing to meet the Paris Agreement targets are dire. From a security standpoint, NATO recognizes climate change as the “defining challenge of our time.” Its recent Vilnius Summit Communique highlights that climate change profoundly affects all of NATO’s core tasks. Viewing climate change as a threat multiplier, worsening impacts contribute to increased forced climate migration, exacerbate food insecurity, and further strain the armed forces of member states, which are already committed to addressing ongoing natural disasters linked to climate change. This results in heightened volatility and tension within an already fragile and fraught security framework.
In Canada, there has been an undeniable increase in extreme weather events induced by climate change, with annual natural disasters significantly impacting communities nationwide. As these events become more frequent and severe, they overwhelm provincial and territorial authorities, leading to a default federal response involving the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) through Operation LENTUS. However, the CAF is at a crossroads, as the continual need for disaster response, combined with increased deployments to Eastern Europe, places a strain on an organization already facing challenges. While the CAF’s focus on deterring international threats through alliances like NATO is essential, climate change represents a boundless threat, increasingly evident as Canada continues to confront domestic climate-related disasters. This therefore presents an opportunity for Canada to take a self-interested yet altruist leadership position in the domain of climate change and climate security today.
As highlighted in the most recent Institute for Peace & Diplomacy foreign policy White Paper, it is in Canada’s interest to actively engage in issues crucial to both the nation and the world. Yet, this ambition comes at a time when Canada, with its limited resources, cannot strategically address all global issues, as exemplified by the Canadian Armed Forces’ (CAF) stretched capacity in disaster response. A prime area of focus is the intersection of the environment and security, where Canada has both an interest and a responsibility in managing the dislocations caused by climate change. A shift in foreign policy towards challenges like climate change, which are significant yet less focused on hard security, would benefit not just Canada, but also the increasingly fragile international order struggling to collaborate on such existential issues.
Leading into the upcoming COP28 summit, as Joseph Ingram points out, Canada has a unique opportunity to begin this reorientation. Ottawa has already positioned itself as a leader in climate change action, often spearheading initiatives to mitigate and address the effects of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental impacts globally. In the lead-up to the 2015 Paris climate change conference, Ottawa even acknowledged the need for a distinct “Canadian approach” to climate change. This approach included decision-making processes based on science, and policy solutions such as carbon pricing and the development of climate-resilient economies.
Climate Action: Tools for the Task
Commitments through NATO already allow for Ottawa to seize upon this opportunity. Canada recently moved forward with the establishment of the NATO Climate Change and Security Centre of Excellence (CCASCOE), having signed the founding document with eleven other nations in Vilnius. By leveraging CCASCOE, Ottawa can address two major issues: balancing its commitment to NATO, and fostering the previously mentioned reorientation of its foreign policy. This initiative also allows Ottawa to further develop the “Canadian approach” to climate action, while addressing a currently under-emphasized area within NATO, especially in light of the current global security context.
Canada is well-equipped with support from its internal security and environmental communities and now faces the task of converging these resources into a unified effort. The annual Montreal Climate Security Summit exemplifies this, providing a platform to address crucial issues such as energy transition, refugee displacement, greening defence, and emergency response to extreme weather events. Concurrently, the Climate Security Association of Canada, launched in March 2023 by experts involved in the CCASCOE process and based in Montreal, further strengthens this initiative. Through these and other dedicated institutions, Canada is well-positioned to contribute significantly to NATO’s Climate Change Compendium of Best Practice and potentially assume a leadership role in the Climate Change and Security Action Plan.
Moreover, as an energy superpower, Canada is uniquely positioned to demonstrate the transition to clean energy sources on a global scale, a critical component in reducing GHG emissions. Interestingly, energy transition has become a significant concern for NATO recently, driven more by economic and supply chain considerations than climate change itself, as highlighted by the war in Ukraine. This shift in focus is evident in the newly announced NATO Energy Transition by Design initiative.
Considering this, it is evident that Canada has the necessary elements in place to reposition itself as a leader in climate change, should it choose to do so. The initiatives mentioned are well-aligned to address both the core of the issue and specific Canadian considerations. These efforts are aptly suited to contribute to both NATO and broader international endeavors aimed at enhancing climate change awareness, mitigation, and adaptation. Additionally, embracing this leadership role aligns with Canada’s NATO commitments while also rebalancing its internal priorities to address issues that hit closer to home. This represents a strategic reallocation of resources, optimizing what Ottawa has at its disposal both internationally and domestically. Out of both self-interest and a commitment to the planet, Canada should capitalize on this opportunity, harnessing the array of efforts outlined above.
Conclusion
The weakening of the international order, the rise of geopolitical rivalries, and the resurgence of armed conflicts have eclipsed climate change considerations within the global security landscape. NATO acknowledges climate change as a “defining challenge of our time,” and it has been an agenda item internationally for over three decades. The United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) also recognizes that climate change exacerbates conflicts and further endangers the most vulnerable. However, recognizing the issue does not equate to solving it within a weakening international order; collaborative action and transnational cooperation are essential. To this effect, the UNHCR warns of worsening conditions, yet also emphasizes that defeatism is not an option and that little is inevitable. With sufficient political will and anticipation of future risks, there is potential to improve future outcomes in terms of climate change for the benefit of future generations.
In this context, this article has outlined various pathways for Canada to take a leadership role in climate change action, many of which align with its existing commitments in the realm of climate security. If the federal government can effectively balance its domestic and international priorities related to climate change, resisting the urge to use it as a political tool, there is still hope for Canada to emerge as a leading light on this critical issue within a new global security environment.
